NICK JORDAN
back to news »Who could be lining up for the 2016 Games?
So Rugby Sevens rightfully got the thumbs up from the IOC’s Executive Board in October and will be included Games of the XXXI Olympiad.
Many unions have come out praising the news but let’s remember there is sure to be intense competition for the 24 places - 12 in the Men's event and 12 in the Women's. Well that’s unless the International Rugby Board (IRB) are allowed to bring more teams into mix. Here’s what could happen…
The IRB has already pledged to use newly-created Olympic Qualifiers to find the 12 teams and is likely use the IRB Sevens to simply determine the rankings. This is much like the system that applies for RWC Sevens, which finds 15 teams from qualification, along with the Host Union and the eight quarterfinalists from the event four years previous.
Of course, there will be no previous Olympic event and the number of teams allowed is 12 as opposed to 24, so let's take the World Games from 2009 and halve the equation, offering automatic qualification to the top four only.
Lining up would be Fiji, Portugal, South Africa and Argentina (four regions represented) and teams from Europe (say another 2), Oceania (2), Africa (1), Asia (1) and North America (1), leaving a spot free for the host Union, Brazil.
Under that scenario, Great Britain and France, New Zealand and Samoa, Kenya, Japan and the USA may be the qualifiers for the Olympics.
Whether, based on results, Europe deserves three teams equal to Oceania is one of many debatable points so let's keep the discussion going with a look at the IRB Sevens rankings.
2008-09 Series champions South Africa and runners-up Fiji would be part of the Games. England (third last season) are part of Team Great Britain joining Scotland (9th), Wales (10th) and Northern Ireland who, as Ireland, don't bother playing on the IRB circuit at the minute.
The 4th - 8th placed teams were New Zealand, Argentina, Kenya, Samoa and Australia but only two of the Oceania teams would be given the invitation.
Let's leave out Australia and skip to the USA (finished 11th), Portugal (12th) and France (13th) giving us 10 of the 11 spoken about under the above qualifying scenario.
Every continent and IRB region is represented in these 10 except Asia, so Japan, who won the Asian Games in 2006 and were the highest ARFU qualifier for the RWC Sevens 2009, are likely to make the grade.
Asia need to improve
Trouble is, Japan didn't win a game in Dubai, and only beat two teams in Hong Kong (China and Sri Lanka, both other ARFU teams) and one in Adelaide (the Cook Islands) this year.
At the recent World Games, Japan beat Hong Kong (twice) but lost every other match. But they have faired better in the recent IRB Asian Sevens Series runner-up in Shanghai and winning in Borneo. The Asian Sevens Series could be the perfect tonic for the sport in the region.
Which brings us to the assumption, based on other sports, that the hosts Brazil will of course receive an invite to make up the 12.
Thus the 12 teams could be:
Fiji
Portugal
South Africa
Argentina
Great Britain
France
New Zealand
Samoa
Kenya
USA
Japan
Brazil
Should that be the 12, Europe has three or four teams, Africa two, North America one or two, Asia one or two, South America one or two and Oceania three.
The biggest name missing is Australia, who have already congratulated their IOC delegates for voting for rugby sevens on the premise that it might mean another medal for the men Down Under. Perhaps the thought of not making the Games will ensure they aim a little higher on the IRB circuit, given they last made a semi in February 2008 and a final in February 2001!!
Or perhaps the Olympic ideal of 'universality', will actually happen and we should celebrate that. After all, it was one of the key selling points to the IOC, so if smaller nations make the Olympics over traditional rugby countries, then that's that.
Either way, as the qualification ramifications starts to sink in, there will be a significant effect on the IRB Sevens.
Next time, I will look at how the circuit could be modified in the years ahead.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick’s our voice from Down Under. He has an eye for stats and is constantly thinking ahead to future events and the ramifications that structural changes in Sevens could bring. A former Tournament Director of the Wellington and Singapore Sevens, Nick has also consulted for the London leg of the World Series while also contributing for the Rugby Times and Rugby News. All blogumnists views published here are that of the author and not UR7s.com
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Flickr
COMMENTS
Manuel Cabral Thu 26 Nov 2009 22:35
Very well said!
Reply | Report this PostA I said in a previous blog post, I "..disagree sharply with any world competition, type RWC or Olympics, not organized for the participation of at least 24 teams. It is very nice to see various reports produced by all sorts of people saying that “after all that winning is not everything”, and then, when it comes to the biggest sports competition in the world, it is involving only the 12 or 16 best teams.
There is no reasonable criterion to justify the decision, as demonstrated by the successive achievements of Hong Kong or the RWC Sevens, played in one stadium, on three successive days by 24 teams."
Regards
Manuel
keane wheeler Fri 27 Nov 2009 01:29
There is no doubt that the teams from Australasia will need to lift their efforts in order to be competitive. This is especially the case for Australia who have traditionally struggled in rugby sevens. The Australian Rugby Union needs to interven early and take the Austrlaian rugby sevens team from a development to a professional program. More funding is neccessary for player development, talent identification and research. Australia's neighbors in Asia (such as Japan) have shown to be well suited to rugby sevens and will clearly be serious contendors in the Olympics. The reliance on speed and evasion in rugby sevens (promoted with smaller and faster players) means that it will attract much attention from many of the Asian countries, who have struggled to match the physcial nature of 15s. However, with the profile of rugby sevens increasing this will no doubt attract more players to the game and it will be interesting to monitor the changes in anthropometry and physical capacities leading into the Olympics. The inclusion of rugby sevens in the Olympics also means that countries will provided additional resources to win gold medals. Hence, the USA will likely be highly competitive in the Olympic rugby sevens and with a greater potential for funding and resources could overcome the heavy weight competitors of Fiji and New Zealand. 2016 Olympic rugby sevens will be a great competition. Keane Wheeler UCNISS
Reply | Report this PostCarlos Leite-Ferraz Wed 9 Dec 2009 20:21
Well, firstly the IRB voting power sits with that very same top 10 teams anyway so if they have to vote about it why would they want to dilute their own revenues, funding and "opportunity" BUT this is not a rugby world cup and the premise was to bring the sport to the world so as much as we need the top nations to be the "face of rugby" we need the inclusion of smaller union teams. The IRB should do their utmost to get an inclusion of 24 teams or risk looking like they did this for themselves. Now I am not anti IRB on the contrary they do a superb job for developing the sport. I just believe that by playing devils advocate that the discussion will lead to inclusion and growth and the will to help smaller nations actually compete with the top teams not keep them at arms length. PLUS just maybe womans rugby gets a bit more spotlight that it has been getting..UR7´s where is your womans section, who is the best womans player of 2009? when is the next round etc? :-)
Reply | Report this Postgarry Sat 17 Jul 2010 09:52
I agree with Carlos's comment about the need to bring the sport to the World as much as we need the top Nations to be the face of Rugby. Ideally I think 24 Teams competing is the number the RIB should be looking at longterm but for the inaugral Competition I think they will be loathe to push for that number choosing to stick around the Powerhouses of the Sport rather than risk diluting the overall quality of the event. However there is a strong case for it to also be more than the afore mentioned twelve Teams. I think the RIB should push for 16 Teams in the Olympic Finals so some of the rising powers of Seven's Rugby have a chance to stake their claim with the so-called "big boys" of the Game. As well I'm sure it will help add colour to an already exciting concept for a total win win scenario. Let's bring it on.
Reply | Report this PostGerrie Mon 11 Apr 2011 02:43
ns2n7v At last, someone comes up with the "right" answer!
Reply | Report this PostPOST A COMMENT